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Unintended pregnancy and abortion by income, region, and the legal status of abortion: Estimates from a comprehensive model for 1990–2019

The Lancet Global Health Aug 24, 2020

Bearak J, Popinchalk A, Ganatra B, et al. - A new statistical model was developed that jointly evaluated unintended pregnancy and abortion with the aim to better inform efforts towards global equity in sexual and reproductive health and rights. Researchers developed the model within a Bayesian framework. Country-based surveys, official statistics, and published studies found through a literature search, were assessed for data on pregnancy intentions and abortion and the World Population Prospects were assessed for data on livebirths. Analysis of results was done with respect to World Bank income groups, Sustainable Development Goal regional groupings, and the legal status of abortion. Findings revealed decline in the global unintended pregnancy rate between 1990–94 and 2015–19, whereas there was an increase in the proportion of unintended pregnancies ending in abortion. As a result, the global average abortion rate was roughly equal for 2015–19 and 1990–94. People in high-income countries were observed to have better access to sexual and reproductive health care relative to those in low-income countries. Per findings, abortion is sought even in settings where it is restricted. They highlight the relevance of ensuring access to the full spectrum of sexual and reproductive health services, including contraception and abortion care, and for additional investment towards equity in health-care services.

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