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Trajectories of body mass index in adulthood and all-cause and cause-specific mortality in the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study

BMJ Open Aug 15, 2019

Yang Y, Dugué PA, Lynch BM, et al. – In this prospective cohort study that was conducted in Australia and involved 29,881 adults, experts identified groups of individuals who followed specific group-based BMI trajectories across adulthood, using weight collected on 3 occasions and recalled data from early adulthood, and investigated correlations with all-cause and cause-specific mortality. Eligible participants were aged 40-70 years between 1990 and 1994, and had BMI data for ≥ 3 time points. The six identified group-based BMI trajectories included: lower-normal stable (TR1), higher-normal stable (TR2), normal to overweight (TR3), chronic borderline obesity (TR4), normal to class I obesity (TR5), and overweight to class II obesity (TR6). Compared with maintaining lower-normal BMI throughout adulthood, the lowest mortality was largely experienced by participants who maintained higher-normal BMI; obesity during midlife was associated with higher all-cause mortality even when BMI was normal in early adulthood; and prolonged borderline obesity from early adulthood was also associated with elevated mortality. These correlations were stronger for never-smokers, as well as for mortality due to obesity-related cancers. Furthermore, being overweight in early adulthood and becoming class II obese was linked to higher cardiovascular mortality relative to maintaining lower-normal BMI.

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