Horii C, Iidaka T, Muraki S, et al. - By analyzing data from a population-based cohort study [entitled the Research on Osteoarthritis/Osteoporosis Against Disability (ROAD) study] with a 3-year follow-up, the annual incidence rates of vertebral fracture (VF) and severe VF (sVF) were estimated to be 5.9%/year and 1.7%/year, respectively, among 1,190 participants aged ≥ 40 years. An independent risk for incident sVF was conferred by the presence of prevalent mild VF (mVF).

• This analysis included 1,190 participants aged ≥ 40 years (mean age, 65.0 ± 11.2) who underwent whole-spine lateral radiography both at the third (2012–2013, baseline) and fourth surveys conducted 3 years later (2015–2016, follow-up).

• At baseline, the prevalence of mVF and sVF were estimated to be 16.8% and 6.0%, respectively.

• In participants without prevalent VF, with prevalent mVF, and with prevalent sVF, the estimated annual incidence rates of sVF were 0.6%/year, 3.8%/year, and 11.7%/year, respectively.

• Among participants without prevalent sVF, the adjusted odds ratios for incident sVF were estimated to be 4.12 and 4.53 if the number of prevalent mVF at the baseline was 1 and ≥ 2, respectively, as revealed in the multivariate logistic regression analyses.