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Smoking and lung cancer mortality in the United States from 2015 to 2065: A comparative modeling approach

Annals of Internal Medicine Nov 23, 2018

Jeon J, et al. - Given that tobacco control efforts initiated in the United States since the 1960s have resulted in significant decreases in smoking and smoking-related diseases (including lung cancer), researchers conducted this study to estimate reductions in tobacco use and lung cancer mortality from 2015-2065 due to existing efforts to control tobacco. They developed models using US data on smoking (1964-2015) and lung cancer mortality (1969-2010), with each model estimating lung cancer death by smoking status under the assumption that current trend of smoking reductions would continue into the future. Study participants included US adults aged 30-84 years. According to results, the age-adjusted mortality rate for lung cancer was projected to decrease by 79% between 2015 and 2065. The finding supports the hypothesis that efforts to control tobacco use will continue to reduce lung cancer rates well into the next half-century.

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