Linder D, et al. – This paper discerned the feasibility of a model elucidating the interaction of psychosocial and clinical factors over the life course of psoriasis patients. The mathematical modelling of such interactions were found to be feasible. Nonetheless, complex models, constituting more variables (for instance: employment status, depression level, obesity etc.) were required for more realistic simulations of the interactions studied. Owing to the increased number of variables causing an exponential increase of the model's state space, shifting to micro–modelling (representing each individual separately) was possibly necessitated.

Methods

• 7 states were taken into account for members of a hypothetical population: Single and healthy, single and having a psoriasis flare, single and “cured”, coupled and healthy, coupled and having a psoriasis flare, coupled and “cured”, and dead.
• Transition probabilities between states were obtained from the Norwegian Population Register for the healthy population and from epidemiological research articles.
• Clinical experience permited adjustments on the assumed parameters.

Results

• The macro-model simulated the impact of therapeutic intervention on patients’ partnership status.
• It provided a description of the transitions between the seven states.
• The therapeutic efficacy demonstrated only a negligible effect on the chances of living with a partner.