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Risk prediction of cervical abnormalities: The value of sociodemographic and lifestyle factors in addition to HPV status

Preventive Medicine Nov 26, 2019

van der Waal D, Bekkers RLM, Dick S, et al. - By utilizing data from a Dutch prospective cohort, researchers determined whether factors other than HPV hold value as predictors of cervical abnormalities. This study included 1,483 women (aged 18–29 years). A comparison was performed between the full model, including sociodemographic and lifestyle factors, vs null model, including baseline HPV only. Cervical intraepithelial neoplasia 2 or worse was considered as the outcome of interest. A vital predictor was baseline high-risk human papillomavirus (hrHPV) status. The null model and the full model had an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.67 and 0.73, respectively. The presence of overfitting was suggested by bootstrap validation. In this study, a single hrHPV measurement was proved as a strong predictor of cervical abnormalities. Findings revealed limited added value of additional risk factors in young women. However, there remains room for improvement when the prediction is based on hrHPV only. To optimize screening performance, adapting policy based on risk may ultimately benefit.
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