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Prediction and validation of exenatide risk marker effects on progression of renal disease: Insights from EXSCEL

Diabetes, Obesity and Metabolism Jan 11, 2020

Idzerda NMA, Clegg LE, Hernandez AF, et al. - Experts investigated if the previously-developed PRE score could assume the renal impacts evaluated in the EXSCEL cardiovascular outcomes trial applying short-term alterations in cardio-renal risk markers. They examined alterations from baseline to six months in glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c), systolic blood pressure (SBP), BMI, hemoglobin, total cholesterol, and new micro- or macroalbuminuria. They characterized renal outcomes as a composite of a sustained 30% or 40% decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate or end-stage renal disease. They applied multivariable Cox regression analysis to analyze associations between risk markers and long-term renal outcomes in T2D individuals from the ALTITUDE study, and then used to short-term alterations in risk markers noticed in EXSCEL to assume the exenatide-induced effect on renal outcomes. Mean HbA1c, BMI, SBP, and total cholesterol were lower at six months with exenatide than placebo, as was the incidence of new microalbuminuria. The results suggested that integrating short-term risk marker alterations into a multivariable risk score anticipated the magnitude of renal risk reduction noticed in EXSCEL.
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