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Predicting the cumulative chance of live birth over multiple complete cycles of in vitro fertilization: An external validation study

Human Reproduction Aug 12, 2018

Leijdekkers JA, et al. - Researchers investigated if the published pre-treatment and post-treatment McLernon models, predicting cumulative live birth rates (LBR) over multiple complete IVF cycles, are valid in a different context. The chance of a live birth using previous IVF prediction models is estimated after a single fresh embryo transfer, thus it excludes the important contribution of embryo cryopreservation and subsequent IVF cycles to cumulative LBR. However, the recently developed McLernon models forecast the cumulative chance of a live birth over multiple complete IVF cycles at two certain time points: (i) before initiating treatment using baseline characteristics (pre-treatment model) and (ii) after the first IVF cycle adding treatment-related information to update predictions (post-treatment model). Findings suggest that with minor recalibration of the pre-treatment model, both McLernon models accurately forecast cumulative LBR in a different geographical context and a more recent time period.
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