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Predicting likelihood of surgery before first visit in patients with back and lower extremity symptoms: A simple mathematical model based on more than 8,000 patients

Spine Sep 06, 2018

Boden LM, et al. - Researchers performed a retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data to build a data-driven triage system which would stratify patients by likelihood of undergoing spinal surgery within 1 year of presentation. Data from 8,006 patients with a chief complaint of low back pain and/or lower extremity (LE) radicular symptoms who presented to surgeons at a large multidisciplinary spine center between September 1, 2005 and June 30, 2016 were analyzed. Independent risk factors for undergoing spinal surgery within 1 year of initial visit were identified and incorporated into the model using a random sample of 80% of the total patients in this cohort. The model was validated on the remaining 20%. This data-driven triage model and scoring system (Spine Surgery Likelihood-11) led to a significant improvement in existing processes in predicting the likelihood of undergoing spinal surgery within 1 year of initial presentation.

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