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Predicting knee replacement in participants eligible for disease-modifying osteoarthritis drug treatment with structural endpoints

Osteoarthritis and Cartilage Apr 28, 2020

Kwoh CK, Guehring H, Aydemir A, et al. - This study included a total of 627 individuals to assess the correlations between 2-year change in radiographic or quantitative magnetic resonance imaging (qMRI) structural measures, and knee replacement (KR), within a subsequent 7-year follow-up period. Researchers selected participants from the Osteoarthritis Initiative based on potential eligibility criteria for a disease-modifying osteoarthritis (OA) drug trial: Kellgren–Lawrence grade 2 or 3; medial minimum joint space width (mJSW) ≥2.5 mm; knee pain at worst 4–9 in the past 30 days on an 11-point scale, or 0–3 if medication was taken for joint pain; and availability of structural measures over 2 years. They calculated and compare mean 2-year change in structural measures with two-sample independent t-tests for KR and no KR. They calculated area under the receiver operating characteristic curve applying 2-year change in structural measures for prediction of future KR outcomes. This study's findings demonstrate that 2-year variations in qMRI femorotibial cartilage thickness and radiographic JSW measures had similar ability to discriminate future KR in participants with knee OA, suggesting that these measures are comparable biomarkers/surrogate endpoints of structural progression.

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