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Population vs individual prediction of poor health from results of adverse childhood experiences screening

JAMA Jan 31, 2021

Baldwin JR, Caspi A, Meehan AJ, et al. - Researchers conducted the study for testing the predictive accuracy of adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) screening for later health problems. This investigation involved 2 birth cohorts: the Environmental Risk (E-Risk) Longitudinal Twin Study observed 2,232 participants born during the period from 1994 to 1995 until they were aged 18 years (2012-2014); the Dunedin Multidisciplinary Health and Development Study observed 1,037 participants born during the period from 1972 to 1973 until they were aged 45 years (2017-2019). Of 2,232 E-Risk candidates, 2,009 (1,051 girls [52%]) were involved in the analysis. This research indicates that while ACE scores can predict mean group differences in health, they have low accuracy in predicting the risk of later health problems for a person. Targeting interventions based on ACE screening is therefore likely to be ineffective in preventing poor health outcomes.

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