Barrington–Trimis JL, et al. – An inspection was entailed in this study of the cigarette susceptibility index to ascertain if it speculated prospective smoking among e–cigarette or hookah users, or among those in tobacco–friendly social environments. The utility of this index could be inappropriate for those using alternative tobacco products (e.g., e–cigarettes or hookah).

Methods

• Data was extracted from the Southern California Children’s Health Study.
• The performance (sensitivity, specificity, predictive value) of a composite index assessing susceptibility to smoking was examined.
• This study also ascertained if performance of the measure varied upon the use of electronic (e-) cigarettes or hookah, or immersion in a tobacco-friendly social environment.
• Susceptibility to cigarette smoking was estimated in 11th/12th grade (2014) among never cigarette-smokers (N = 1266); follow-up data on smoking initiation were obtained approximately 16 months later.

Results

16.4% of youth were reported to have initiated smoking between baseline and follow-up.
• Sensitivity of the susceptibility to smoking index was low (46.4%), and specificity was high (79.0%).
• There was no variation in sensitivity by baseline e-cigarette use. Higher specificity was noted among never e-cigarette users.
• There were variations in negative predictive value (NPV) and positive predictive value (PPV), noted via baseline e-cigarette and hookah use.
• Specificity was generally lower, and sensitivity was generally higher for those in tobacco-friendly social environments.