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Overestimation of late distant recurrences in high-risk patients with ER- positive breast cancer: Validity and accuracy of the CTS5 risk score in the TEAM and IDEAL trials

Journal of Clinical Oncology Oct 06, 2020

Noordhoek I, Blok EJ, Kranenbarg EMK, et al. - This research was intended to confirm the ability of The Clinical Treatment Score post-5 years (CTS5) to predict distant recurrences (DRs) in women with hormone receptor–positive breast cancer after 5 years from diagnosis. Researchers evaluated discrimination and calibration applying data from the TEAM and IDEAL trials. With data from the IDEAL trial, they investigated the predictive value of the CTS5. The study population consisted of 5,895 patients from the TEAM trial and 1,591 patients from the IDEAL trial. It was reported that the CTS5 score discriminates between risk categories as used on patients treated in the TEAM and IDEAL cohorts but, in high-risk patients, it overestimates the risk of late distant recurrences. The CTS5-predicted DR rates that were higher, although not statistically significantly so, than observed rates in low- and intermediate-risk patients. The DR rates predicted by the CTS5 were significantly higher than observed rates in high-risk patients. The numerical risk evaluation from the current CTS5 calculator should be interpreted with caution when applied in daily clinical practice, especially in high-risk patients.

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