Shield KD, et al. - This trial strived to estimate the estimated the number of new cancer cases in France in 2015 attributable to varying levels of alcohol consumption. Approximately 8% of new cancer cases could be attributed to alcohol consumption, with light and moderate drinking contributing appreciably to this burden. Hence, it was inferred that a 10% drop in drinking in France would have prevented over 2000 (estimated) new cancer cases in 2015.

Methods

• This study determined the new cancer cases attributable to alcohol, via a Population-Attributable Fraction methodology, assuming a 10-year latency period between exposure and diagnosis.
• The enrollees comprised of the population of France.
• An estimation was performed of the alcohol consumption by coordinating data from the Barometre sante 2005, a national representative survey (n= 30,455), with data from the Global Information System on Alcohol and Health.
• Relative risks were obtained from meta-analyses.
• Cancer data were determined based on data from the French Cancer Registries Network.
• The Monte Carlo procedure measured the uncertainty Intervals (UI).

Results

• In France in 2015, an estimated 27,894 (95% UI: 24,287 to 30,996) or 7.9% of all new cancer cases were attributable to alcohol.
• This was similar for both men and women, with oesophageal squamous cell carcinomas having the largest attributable fraction (57.7%).
• Light, moderate, heavy and former alcohol drinking were responsible for 1.5%, 1.3%, 4.4% and 0.6% of all new cancer cases respectively.
• Prevention of new cancer cases would have been possible if there had been a previous 10% reduction in alcohol consumption, 2,178 (95% UI: 1,687 to 2,601).