Dorman E, et al. - In this study, researchers displayed the potential effect of novel male contraceptive methods on averting unintended pregnancies in the US, South Africa, and Nigeria. Even under conservative assumptions, the introduction of a male pill or temporary vas occlusion could meaningfully contribute to averting unintended pregnancies in a variety of contexts, particularly in settings where current utilization of contraception is low.

Methods

• They utilized an established methodology for ascertaining the number of couple-years of protection (CYP) provided by a given contraceptive method mix.
• They compared a “current scenario” (reflecting current utilization of existing methods in each country) against “future scenarios,” (reflecting whether a male oral pill or a reversible vas occlusion was introduced) in order to assess the effect on unintended pregnancies averted.
• Where possible, they based the assumptions on acceptability data from studies on uptake of novel male contraceptive methods.

Results

• Assuming only 10% of interested men would take up a novel male method and that users would comprise both switchers (from existing methods) and brand new users of contraception, the model estimated that introducing the male pill or reversible vas occlusion would reduce unintended pregnancies by 3.5% to 5.2% in the US, by 3.2% to 5% in South Africa, and by 30.4% to 38% in Nigeria.
• Alternative model scenarios are presented assuming uptake as high as 15% and as low as 5% in each location.
• Model results were sensitive to assumptions regarding novel method uptake and proportion of switchers vs. new users.