Mapping global trends in vaccine confidence and investigating barriers to vaccine uptake: A large-scale retrospective temporal modelling study
The Lancet Sep 30, 2020
de Figueiredo A, Simas C, Karafillakis E, et al. - They used data from 290 surveys across 149 countries including 284,381 individuals, to conduct a large-scale retrospective data-driven analysis investigating the global trends in vaccine confidence between September, 2015 and December, 2019. This study is the largest study of global vaccine confidence to date, enabling cross-country comparisons and changes over time. Per estimates, Afghanistan, Indonesia, Pakistan, the Philippines, and South Korea had a decline in the confidence of the importance, safety, and effectiveness of vaccines during the study period. Between 2015 and 2019, six countries—Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan, and Serbia—had significant increases in respondents strongly disagreeing that vaccines are safe. They identified signs indicating improvement in confidence between 2018 and 2019 in some EU member states, including Finland, France, Ireland, and Italy, with losses identified in Poland. Relative to other determinants considered, confidence in the importance of vaccines (rather than in their safety or effectiveness) had the strongest univariate correlation with vaccine uptake. Lower probabilities of uptake were observed among minority religious groups, when looking at links between individuals' religious beliefs and uptake. Based on these findings, they emphasize performing regular monitoring to identify emerging trends to prompt interventions to build and sustain vaccine confidence.
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