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Long-term exposure to elevated systolic blood pressure in predicting incident cardiovascular disease: Evidence from large-scale routine electronic health records

Journal of the American Heart Association Jun 12, 2019

Solares JRA, et al. - Researchers analyzed data from UK primary care linked electronic health records, to compare past, current, and usual systolic blood pressure used alone or in combination as predictors of incident cardiovascular disease risk. They used a derivation cohort of 64,772 and validation cohort of 16,192 subjects, aged 50 years who had no prior cardiovascular disease, and no previous antihypertensive or lipid-lowering prescriptions. Per 20–mm Hg increase in current systolic blood pressure, a hazard ratio (95% credible interval) of 1.22 (1.18–1.30) was reported, when used alone, but stronger links were found for past systolic blood pressure (mean and time-weighted mean) and usual systolic blood pressure (hazard ratio ranging from 1.39–1.45). For a model that comprised of current systolic blood pressure, sex, smoking, deprivation, diabetes mellitus, and lipid profile, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.747 (95% credible interval, 0.722–0.811). Compared to a single blood pressure measurement, multiple blood pressure recordings demonstrated stronger links with incident cardiovascular disease, though the addition of multiple blood pressure recordings to multivariate risk prediction models resulted in negligible impacts on model performance.
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