Global alcohol exposure between 1990 and 2017 and forecasts until 2030: A modelling study
The Lancet Jun 27, 2019
Manthey J, et al. – In this study, researchers estimated the main indicators of alcohol exposure for 189 countries from 1990 to 2017, with projections up to 2030. Adult alcohol per-capita consumption in a given year was classified according to country-validated data up to 2016. Projections up to 2030 were collected from multivariate log-normal mixture Poisson distribution models. The prevalence of lifetime abstinence and current drinking was obtained from Dirichlet regressions using survey data from nearly 150 countries. The prevalence of heavy episodic drinking (30-day prevalence of ≥ 1 occasion of 60 g of pure alcohol intake among current drinkers) was estimated with fractional response regressions using survey data ~120 nations. Between 1990 and 2017, global adult per-capita consumption increased from 5.9 L to 6.5 L, and was estimated to reach 7.6 L by 2030. Worldwide, the prevalence of lifetime abstinence decreased from 46% in 1990 to 43% in 2017; although, this was not a significant reduction while the prevalence of current drinking increased from 45% in 1990 to 47% in 2017. The investigators projected both patterns to continue, with abstinence further reducing to 40% by 2030 and the proportion of current drinkers increasing to 50% by 2030. In 2017, 20% of adults were noted to be heavy episodic drinkers, and this prevalence was projected to increase to 23% in 2030. Based on these findings, global targets for decreasing the adverse use of alcohol are unlikely to be achieved. Thus, known effective and cost-effective policy measures should be utilized to reduce alcohol exposure.
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