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Evaluating the causal impact of individual alcohol licensing decisions on local health and crime using natural experiments with synthetic controls

Addiction Feb 18, 2020

de Vocht F, McQuire C, Brennan A, et al. - Researchers investigated if alcohol licensing decisions could be appraised at a small spatial scale by employing a causal inference framework. In the setting of three English local areas of 1,000 – 15,000 people, the case study interventions considered were: (i) the closure of a nightclub following reviews; (ii) closure of a restaurant/nightclub following reviews, and (iii) implementation of new local licensing guidance (LLG). They compared the trends in outcomes with synthetic counterfactuals created using the Bayesian structural time series. A temporary 4-month reductions in anti-social behavior was observed in correlation with the closure of the nightclub, with no change on other outcomes. They did not recognize measurable changes in outcomes following closure of the restaurant/nightclub. The new licensing guidance resulted in small decreases in drunk and disorderly behavior (9 of a predicted 21 events averted), and the unplanned end of the LLG coincided with a rise in domestic violence of 2 incidents per month. These findings suggest that the influences of local alcohol policy, even at the level of individual premises, can be appraised employing a causal inference framework. A positive influence on health and crime was observed in the immediate surrounding area in correlation with the local government actions such as closure or restriction of alcohol venues and alcohol licensing.
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