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Distinctive lung cancer incidence trends among men and women attributable to the period effect in Shanghai: An analysis spanning 42 years

Cancer Medicine Mar 05, 2020

Xie L, Qian Y, Liu Y, et al. - By analyzing data from Shanghai Cancer Registry, researchers intended to gain insights into the possible causes for the secular trend of lung cancer incidence and mortality reported in several prior studies. They computed age-standardized rates and applied Joinpoint regression to assess average annual percent changes. They found a significant decline in male lung cancer incidence between 2001 and 2009, vs long-time slowly rising trend in women, from 1973 to 2010. Thereafter, they noted a sharp increase in lung cancer incidence in females and there were similar growing trends without statistical significance in males, from 2010 to 2014. For lung cancer incidence, the period effects demonstrated a rising effect for females, whereas a decline effect for the same was evident for males. A significant period effect in both genders was displayed by the age-period-cohort model, with a similar fashion in mortality, generating steady declining trends during the whole study duration. Overall, it was concluded that significant period effects may be responsible for the observed distinctive patterns of lung cancer incidence between men and women, this indicates the shifts in public health policies or diagnostic practices as well as emphasized the necessity of continued monitoring of gender-specific risk factors for lung cancer incidence.
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