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Development and validation of a prediction rule for estimating gastric cancer risk in the Chinese high-risk population: A nationwide multicentre study

Gut Aug 14, 2019

Cai Q, Zhu C, Yuan Y, et al. - Researchers conducted this nationwide, multicenter, cross-sectional study to create a gastric cancer (GC) risk prediction rule as an initial prescreening tool to identify high-risk individuals prior to gastroscopy. Participants in the study included individuals aged 40-80 years who went to hospitals for GC screening gastroscopy. For this investigation, 14,929 eligible participants were randomized to derivation and validation cohorts, with a ratio of 2:1. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to test relationships of potential risk factors with GC in the derivation cohort. The GC risk prediction rule consisted of seven variables, with scores ranging from 0 to 25: age, sex, PG I/II ratio, G-17 level, Helicobacter pylori infection, pickled food, and fried food. According to findings, the prediction rule identified 70.8% of GC individuals and 70.3% of early GC individuals among all participants, and reduced gastroscopy by 66.7%. Consequently, it demonstrated the ability to detect GC early and significantly decrease gastroscopy expenses. In a Chinese high-risk population, the novel prediction rule exhibited good performance in identifying people at a higher risk; however, future studies are required in a larger population to validate its effectiveness.

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