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Development and validation of a five-factor score for prediction of pathologic pneumatosis

The Journal of Trauma and Acute Care Surgery Mar 12, 2021

Rieser CJ, Dadashzadeh ER, Handzel RM, et al. - Researchers aimed at determining the patient factors at the time of radiographic diagnosis of pneumatosis intestinalis (PI) that may aid in predicting the risk for pathologic PI. In this retrospective cohort study of patients with PI, they analyzed a total of 305 patients. Of these patients, 102 (33.4%) had pathologic PI. Five factors at the time of radiographic diagnosis were identified to be linked with pathologic PI: small bowel PI, age 70 years or older, heart rate 110 bpm or greater, lactate of 2 mmol/L or greater, and neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio 10 or greater. Including these factors, a predictive model for pathologic PI was developed by performing multivariate logistic regression. Using this model, they assigned risk scores to patients in the validation cohort ranging from 0 to 11. Low-risk patients were categorized when scores are 0 to 4; intermediate, score of 5 to 6; high, score of 7 to 8; and very high risk, 9+. Accurate stratification of the patient risk of pathologic pneumatosis was done using the score. Based on findings, they suggest a potential utility of this score to target high-risk individuals for expedient operation and spare low-risk individuals invasive interventions.

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