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County-level trends in suicide rates in the U.S., 2005–2015

American Journal of Preventive Medicine May 18, 2018

Rossen LM, et al. - Researchers determined geographic, temporal, and urban–rural patterns in suicide from 2005 to 2015 in the U.S. by producing stable county-level estimates of suicide rates, using small area estimation. They estimated suicide rates for 3,140 counties using hierarchical Bayesian models and National Vital Statistics Underlying Cause of Death Files (2005–2015). From 2005 to 2015, >10% rise was observed in posterior predicted mean county-level suicide rates for 99% of counties in the U.S.; increases of >20% was shown by 87% of counties. Counties consistently located across the western and northwestern U.S. showed the highest model-based suicide rates, with the exception of southern California and parts of Washington. From 2005 to 2015, the highest estimated suicide rates were reported in more rural counties vs more urban counties. The largest increases over time were found in more rural counties.
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