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Cardiovascular risk prediction in type 2 diabetes before and after widespread screening: A derivation and validation study

The Lancet Jun 17, 2021

Pylypchuk R, Wells S, Kerr A, et al. - This study sought to explore whether cardiovascular risk prediction equations derived before widespread screening would now significantly overestimate risk in screen-detected patients. Researchers distinguished New Zealanders aged 30–74 years with type 2 diabetes and without known cardiovascular disease, heart failure, or substantial renal impairment from the 400 000-person PREDICT primary care cohort study between Oct 27, 2004, and Dec 30, 2016, covering the period before and after widespread screening. These outcomes have clear international implications as elevated diabetes screening is inevitable due to increasing obesity, simpler screening tests, and the introduction of new-generation glucose-lowering medications that prevent cardiovascular events. This study’s findings demonstrate that there is a need for cardiovascular risk prediction equations derived from contemporary diabetes populations, with multiple diabetes-related and renal function predictors to better differentiate between low-risk and high-risk patients in this increasingly heterogeneous population and to inform appropriate non-pharmacological management and cost-effective targeting of expensive new medications.

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