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Assessing COVID-19 risk, vulnerability and infection prevalence in communities

PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases Nov 02, 2020

Kiaghadi A, et al. - Researchers aimed at developing a planning tool to examine factors that affect vulnerability to COVID-19, by defining five broad categories across 46 variables: 1) access to medical services, 2) underlying health conditions, 3) environmental exposures, 4) vulnerability to natural disasters, and 5) sociodemographic, behavioral, and lifestyle factors. Findings suggest significant and relatively strong correlations of all of these 5 vulnerability categories, as well as of the overall vulnerability, with the normalized confirmed cases of COVID-19 at the census tract level. Based on these categories, they identified that the risk was higher for a total of 722,357 (~17% of the County population) people, including 171,403 between the ages of 45–65 (~4% of County’s population), and 76,719 seniors (~2% of County population). The exceedance and K-means cluster analysis revealed the highest risk for census tracts in the northeastern, eastern, southeastern and northwestern regions of the County. These findings are valuable for allocating the scarce resources, and thus, are relevant to policymakers at all levels of government.

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