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A comparison of scoring systems for predicting short- and long-term survival after trauma in older adults

Academic Emergency Medicine Apr 15, 2019

Meagher AD, et al. - An empirically derived scoring system (the geriatric trauma risk indicator [GTRI]) from available data was used to identify injured older adults at highest risk for 30-day mortality and was compared with current prognostic scoring systems (the Charlson Comorbidity Index [CCI], modified frailty index, geriatric trauma outcome score [GTOS)], GTOS II, and Injury Severity Score (ISS)]) in this study. Injured adults aged ≥ 65 years transported by 44 emergency medical services (EMS) agencies to 49 emergency departments in Oregon and Washington were retrospectively studied for this work. Researchers identified 4,849 patients; death was reported in 234 (4.8%) within 30 days and in 1,040 (21.5%) within 1 year. Death within 30 days was more frequently reported for those who required emergent airway management or had a higher comorbidity burden. The GTRI had higher specificity with sensitivity constant near 90%, despite a lower AUROC vs other risk measures. High-risk older adults could be better predicted using GTOS II or the GTRI than traditional scores, such as ISS.

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