Scariest Healthcare Predictions
M3 Global Newsdesk Aug 10, 2024
This article highlights the severe health impacts of climate change, worsening food insecurity, non-communicable diseases, and healthcare delivery, especially among marginalised groups. It calls for urgent action from healthcare stakeholders to mitigate these effects.
Key takeaways
- Climate change is a global health crisis with far-reaching impacts on every part of our lives—from the food we eat to the spaces we inhabit—and it will disproportionately impact marginalised populations.
- Physicians predict that the climate crisis will heighten food insecurities, increase the burden and incidence of non-communicable diseases, and contribute to reduced access to and availability of quality care, among other predictions.
- Healthcare stakeholders play a crucial role in addressing the adverse effects of climate change on public health, underscoring the ongoing (and growing) issue of the HCP shortage.
With reports of extreme heat waves, rising sea levels, flooding, water scarcity, intense droughts, strong hurricanes, and declining biodiversity dominating the news headlines, it's clear that climate change is not just a distant concern; it's today’s reality and the biggest threat to health and humanity.
According to the WHO, climate change will cause an additional 250,000 deaths per year between 2030 and 2050—from malnutrition, malaria, diarrhoea, and heat stress alone. By 2030, the WHO estimates direct damage costs to health to be between $2 to $4 billion per year.[1]
The climate crisis is a global health emergency with far-reaching impacts on every part of life, from the food we eat, the air we breathe, the water we drink, and the spaces we inhabit.[2][3]
When spoke with physicians about their most alarming healthcare predictions for the future resulting from today’s environmental crises. Here's what they had to say.
Exacerbating health inequities
Though no one is immune to its effects, the health impact of climate change will disproportionately affect women, children, older adults, people with disabilities or chronic health conditions, people living in poverty, and other marginalised groups.
Uche Ralph-Opara, MD, MPH, MBA, Chief Health Officer for Project HOPE, believes climate change poses an existential threat to our global health. She predicts that the healthcare system's existing disparities will be worsened by the climate crisis, with harsher impacts on certain populations.
“Climate change disproportionately affects those already vulnerable to health challenges: poor communities, newborns and children, women, ethnic minorities, migrants and displaced people, older populations, Indigenous Peoples, and individuals with pre-existing health conditions,” said Dr. Ralph-Opara.
For instance, in times of mass displacement, disaster, extreme weather, and chaos, everyone—but especially women and children—is at an increased risk of harm, negative health outcomes, and serious mental health challenges, Dr. Ralph-Opara says.
She shares this example: “In the aftermath of Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico in 2017, women and girls faced increased threats of violence and abuse and experienced poorer reproductive and maternal health outcomes due to food insecurity, exhaustion, heat, and waterborne diseases.”
Alexander Krist, MD, MPH, a professor with Virginia Commonwealth University's School of Medicine, echoes this prediction, explaining that heat event days are more likely to affect people with multiple chronic conditions and cardiovascular diseases. People living in disadvantaged neighbourhoods—those less likely to have access to outdoor green spaces and air conditioners indoors, will be less resilient to the impact of extreme heat waves.
The WHO also emphasises the differential distribution of health risks from climate-change crises, noting that those whose health will be most affected are often the least responsible for the climate crisis.[4] These populations—people in low-income and disadvantaged countries and communities—also have the fewest resources to protect themselves.
Worsening food insecurity
The 2023 edition of The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World, a report issued by the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) of the United Nations, revealed that approximately 735 million people experienced hunger in 2022—an increase of 122 million since 2019.[5][6] Additionally, the report indicated that 2.4 billion people experienced moderate or severe food insecurity in 2022.
What’s more, the report noted that more than 3.1 billion individuals could not afford a healthy diet.
Climate change is predominantly responsible for worsening global food insecurity, and this pattern is expected to continue.[7] Dr. Ralph-Opara predicts that rising temperatures and flooding will result in food production disruptions and water scarcity, which, in turn, will lead to greater rates of food insecurity, malnutrition, disease, and displacement.
She notes an example: “In East Africa, recurring droughts decimated crops and livestock, resulting in severe food shortages and malnutrition, particularly among children.”
Increasing rates of non-communicable diseases
Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are a significant public health issue, responsible for 74% of all global deaths.[8]
Like climate change, NCDs have a greater impact on low and middle-income countries. Another prediction based on today’s events is that climate change will raise the burden of NCDs.[9]
Climate change events like heat waves and air pollution contribute to the prevalence of cardiovascular diseases, type 2 diabetes, dementia, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, mental health disorders like anxiety and depression, and other NCDs through different mechanisms.
Dr. Krist explains that these adverse climate conditions may discourage people from engaging in health-promoting activities, such as exercise and social interaction, which are known to reduce the risk of developing these diseases.[10]
In addition, “air pollution exacerbates NCDs like asthma, cancer, and diabetes,” explains Dr. Ralph-Opara. Both Dr. Ralph-Opara and Dr. Krist have noted that recent wildfires in California dramatically impacted air quality and led to an increase in respiratory conditions such as asthma and COPD.
Victims, survivors, and witnesses of the climate crisis may also experience serious mental health challenges.
"Climate-related crises can result in psychological hardship like anxiety, depression, and post-traumatic stress disorder, particularly for children."
— Uche Ralph-Opara, MD, MPH, MBA
Disruptions to healthcare delivery
Experts predict climate change will impede the delivery of quality healthcare services by impacting healthcare infrastructure and workers. These ramifications will contribute to the prevalence and burden of communicable diseases and NCDs alike.
It’s well-established that the healthcare system is currently grappling with a chronic shortage of healthcare workers and worker burnout. The WHO estimates a shortage of 10 million health workers by 2030, primarily in low- and lower-middle-income countries.[11]
According to a report highlighted by the World Economic Forum, two out of every three HCPs (nurses and physicians) face burnout.[12] Dr. Ralph-Opara predicts that the climate crisis will only compound these problems.
“Rising temperatures, extreme weather events, and shifting disease patterns are already taking a toll on health workers who are our first line of defence against the health impacts of a rapidly changing climate,” she warns. Worse, many are not equipped or trained to address the health implications of a warming planet.
For instance, in regions with historically mild climates, she explains that health workers may not know how to identify or treat diseases like malaria or dengue fever, which are becoming more prevalent due to increasing temperatures.
Climate change will drive a surge in patient numbers, overwhelming an already short-staffed healthcare system. Already, in the US, on days with extreme heat, there is a significant rise in hospitalisations and emergency room visits. According to Dr. Krist, Virginia alone has about 4,600 additional emergency room visits and 2,000 hospitalisations each year due to heat-related illnesses.
Extreme and prolonged droughts in the Horn of Africa, record-breaking hurricanes in the Atlantic, catastrophic floods in Italy and Libya, devastating wildfires in Hawaii, and other recent environmental disasters, all of which have caused casualties, have also damaged health infrastructure and disrupted healthcare delivery, Dr Ralph-Opara notes.
The aftermath of Hurricane Dorian in the Bahamas left healthcare services in disarray, with prolonged power outages in hospitals and a shortage of essential medical supplies. Rising sea levels have also endangered health infrastructure in major coastal cities like Jakarta and New Orleans, prompting the need to relocate or redesign critical facilities, she says.
The health industry itself is responsible for nearly 5% of all greenhouse gas emissions,[13] meaning those at the helm must take steps to reduce its contribution to the climate crisis while advocating for necessary measures at the state and federal level to slow the pace of our warming planet.
What this means for you
Collaboration among healthcare stakeholders—including policymakers, federal, state, and local governments, HCPs, and health system leaders—about immediate and sustained actions to slow down the negative health impacts of climate change has become increasingly important. HCPs' awareness of the effects of climate change is necessary to better educate patients about their susceptibility to things like food insecurity, the spread of non-communicable diseases, and worsening access to care.
Disclaimer: This story is contributed by Frances Gatta and is a part of our Global Content Initiative, where we feature selected stories from our Global network which we believe would be most useful and informative to our doctor members.
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