A recent survey by WHO-AIIMS presented findings that children have a higher rate of SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity. These initial findings of the study seem to point that a potential third wave of COVID may not affect children like it was feared before.

For our comprehensive coverage and latest updates on COVID-19 click here.

---

What does the research say?

According to a seroprevalence research done by the World Health Organization (WHO) and the All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS), a probable third wave of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in India is unlikely to substantially harm children over adults. Children had a higher rate of SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity than adults in a survey performed by WHO-AIIMS in five chosen states with a total sample size of 10,000.

The study examined the COVID-19 seropositivity rate in children and adults in four states and discovered a seroprevalence of 55.7 per cent in those aged two to seventeen years and 63.5 per cent in those aged eighteen years and above.

Contrary to common assumption, a seroprevalence research found that any potential third wave caused by the prevalent COVID-19 variation is unlikely to disproportionately impact children two years or older.

---

Participation numbers in the study

1. The study examined the COVID-19 seropositivity rate in children and adults from five sites in four states and discovered a seroprevalence of 55.7 per cent in those aged two to seventeen years and 63.5 per cent in those aged eighteen years and above.
2. The study found that the seropositivity rate for SARS-CoV-2 was high in youngsters and comparable to the adult population.
3. As per the study, which was published on the pre-print server medRxiv, the new findings are based on a mid-term examination of data collected from 4,509 participants in four states between 15 March and 10 June 2021, a period that encompasses the majority of the second wave of COVID-19.
4. Seven hundred of the total participants were between the ages of two and seventeen, with the remainder being between the ages of eighteen and twenty-eight.
5. Within the younger population (2-17 years), 92 participants came from the Delhi urban resettlement colony, 189 from Delhi rural (villages in the Faridabad district of the Delhi NCR), 165 from Bhubaneswar rural, 146 from Gorakhpur rural, and 108 from Agartala rural.

---

Girls have a higher seroprevalence than boys

The study also discovered that while female children had a little higher seroprevalence than male participants (58.6 per cent vs 53.0 per cent), there was no statistically significant difference in seropositivity between male and female participants. However, the research stated that this "may be a coincidental finding" due to the scarcity of data available at the time of midterm analysis.

362 (51.7 per cent) of the 700 children aged 2-17 years who participated in the serosurvey were male. There were 33 individuals aged 2-4 years (4.8 per cent), 153 participants aged 5-9 years (21.8 per cent), and 512 participants aged 10-17 years (73.1 per cent).

"The increased seropositivity rate in children aged 10-17 years may be due to their increased mobility and independence in comparison to younger children," the report stated.

Additionally, the study revealed that children aged 2-4 years and 5-9 years had nearly equal seropositivity rates (42.4 per cent and 43.8 per cent, respectively), which was lower than the rate reported in children aged 10-17 years (60.3 per cent).

Children had somewhat lower seropositivity than adults in rural areas, the study found, but this difference in frequency was not detected in urban areas.

---

What conclusions can be drawn about Delhi with these findings?

Dr Puneet Misra, professor of Community Medicine at AIIMS, New Delhi, who conducted the survey said, "Resettlement colonies in South Delhi's urban regions, which have a very crowded population, had a very high (highest recorded yet in any sero-assessment) seroprevalence of 74.7 per cent."

Even before the second wave, children under the age of 18 in South Delhi had the same level of seroprevalence (73.9%) as adults (74.8 per cent).

Dr. Misra explained, "Following the strong second wave, certain regions in Delhi and the National Capital Region (Faridabad) may have greater seroprevalence. These seroprevalence levels are likely to be protective against any 'third wave’.”

According to the study, "Opening schools in Delhi's crowded urban neighbourhoods, where children already have significant seroprevalence, may not be a particularly dangerous idea. During the second wave, the NCR region of Faridabad (rural area) had a seroprevalence of 59.3 per cent (nearly equal in both age groups), which is high when compared to prior national surveys.”

---

In Gorakhpur's rural regions, there's a good chance of herd immunity

According to the report, COVID-19 primarily affected Gorakhpur's rural regions, indicating that herd immunity is likely in these locations. While Gorakhpur Rural has a very high seroprevalence of 87.9%, the seroprevalence in the young group (2-18 years) was 80.16%, and it was 90.3% in the over 18 years age group.

According to the poll, these levels are likely to stave off the ‘third wave’. The findings from Delhi and Uttar Pradesh, according to the report, partially explain the rapid peaks and precipitous drop in COVID-19 cases in both states.

---

Seroprevalence is lowest in rural regions of Agartala

Agartala Rural site had the lowest seroprevalence of 51.9 per cent among the five locations investigated as part of the survey, perhaps because it also contained some tribal population, who has reduced mobility and so is less vulnerable to COVID-19 infection.

Moreover, half of the rural population studied (62.3 per cent) had signs of the previous infection. Rural areas, regardless of age group, showed lower seropositivity than metropolitan sites (Delhi), according to the research. The study was based on preliminary findings from WHO and AIIMS research using the WHO unity methodology. It was not peer-reviewed and was released on the pre-print platform medRxiv. A second research will include 10,000 people from five different states.

Disclaimer- The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author's and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of M3 India.

The author is a practising super specialist from New Delhi.