The total number of COVID-19 affected individuals across the globe has reached well over 150,000. In India there have been over 10,000 cases reported, a number that continues to steadily increase. The 21-day nationwide lockdown has been extended to help curb the spread of the virus, to ‘flatten the curve’. So, what exactly is being referred to when speaking about “the curve” in relation to the pandemic, and why is it important to understand?

For our comprehensive coverage and latest updates on COVID-19 click here.

In epidemiological terms, the curve refers to a projected trajectory of cases of a disease which is expected to be seen over a hypothesised time period. In order to “flatten” this curve, certain measures have been identified by experts which can be implemented to curb the aggressive spread of a disease within a population and/or community. With relation to the spread of the coronavirus disease, given that there is no vaccine and low herd immunity at present, officials have opted to introduce such measures.

The World Health Organization (WHO) has urged for people across the globe to collectively practice isolation and social distancing measures. Many countries have accordingly adopted stay-at-home policies and have called for a lockdown to identify and isolate afflicted individuals. According to officials from the WHO, implementing strict social distancing measures and requiring everyone to stay home is a way to ensure that high risk individuals (those at a higher chance of contracting and/or transmitting the virus, such as healthcare workers or family of individuals who’ve returned from outside India) don’t potentially spread the virus.

Several states have already implemented strict lockdown measures. Many scientists and researchers hold firm to the belief that flattening the curve will drastically aid in bringing down cases of COVID-19 that are reported. However, this may not be enough on its own.

Why lockdown alone is not enough to reduce spread of virus

While implementing stay-at-home orders like done in the US or calling for a lockdown as is being done in India are definitely going to have a long term effect on the number of cases, officials have also stressed the importance of screening and testing in addition to lockdown efforts.

Earlier, WHO director general Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus had stated during a press briefing that testing efforts to identify active cases and asymptomatic carriers of the disease would be the only way to combat aggressive spread of the novel coronavirus.

A recent report published also showed that states in India with higher rates of testing were reporting more cases of coronavirus disease. States such as Kerala and Chandigarh have been extremely proactive and adequate in testing. While Kerala has reported high numbers of cases, the recovery rate also tends to be more proportionate, because most individuals are identified to be positive for the disease early on itself.

The last 2 weeks have seen an increase in the number of cases being reported from Tamil Nadu and Maharashtra. While the former had reported the second highest number of active cases of COVID-19, Maharashtra had reported the highest number of active cases of the disease across the country.

The US has replaced China and Italy and currently is the epicenter of the pandemic, with over 4,20,000 cases. The Indian government had stated that it would be sending supplies of hydroxychloroquine, an antimalarial drug which has been prescribed for healthcare workers and other high-risk individuals, to the US. This came after the US president took to expressing vocal support for the use of the drug in treating coronavirus affected individuals.

However, doctors and health experts have cautioned and warned against the use of the drug to prevent coronavirus disease. Pharmacies have been directed to not sell the drug without an official doctor’s prescription. Several hospitals have allocated the required dosage of the medication to their employees, especially for doctors and other healthcare workers who work on the frontlines of the outbreak.

It takes up to 2 weeks following exposure to the virus, for an individual to show symptoms of an infection. Prior to the onset of the disease, a person might feel completely healthy and yet still be capable of passing on the virus. The WHO has advised for the use of cloth masks, particularly when heading out, as a personal hygiene measure. Hand washing techniques have also been advised to be followed. Wash hands with soap and water for at least 20 seconds; the soap can break down the lipid (fat) barrier which envelopes the virus, thereby rendering it ineffective.

Researchers and scientists across the world are continuing to race to find a vaccine or more targeted treatment against the virus. While some drugs including remdesivir and hydroxychloroquine have reportedly shown beneficial effects, there is still a long way to go with regards to clinical trials.