To achieve long-term victory over COVID-19, humans must reach herd immunity—the point at which the virus can no longer find enough hosts to cause significant levels of infection in a population. An effective COVID-19 vaccine will enable the world to accomplish this goal rapidly and safely, and researchers are optimistic that an immunization will be available soon. According to new research by Associate Professor of Psychology Jennifer Trueblood, however, the development of an effective vaccine is only the first part of the immunity solution.

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“Even if we have an effective COVID vaccine and we can produce as many doses as we need, we still have to get people to take the vaccine,” Trueblood said. “There have been numerous reports in the media recently that people are skeptical of a vaccine, so I wanted to see what might affect vaccine uptake and what sort of messaging can help people’s willingness to take a vaccine.”

From a psychological perspective, immunization with a brand-new vaccine is a gamble. Individuals must weigh the potential benefits of the vaccine (immunity to COVID-19) against the financial cost and physical pain of the shot, plus the probability that it may yield no benefit or may even cause active harm (such as illness or disability due to side effects). To help determine whether people’s personal risk preference might affect their willingness to take a COVID-19 vaccine, Trueblood analyzed data from a wide-ranging survey that has been running since March. The survey asks a representative sample of nationwide participants about various behaviors, attitudes and outcomes related to COVID-19, including their natural willingness to take risks and whether they plan to take a vaccine if one becomes available. Overall, individuals with higher risk preferences were more likely to say they plan to be vaccinated, while individuals with lower risk preferences were more likely to say they do not plan to be vaccinated.