The Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur (IIT-K) researchers have predicted that the fourth wave of COVID-19 may set in around June 2022 in the country.

According to the study, India is likely to witness the fourth COVID wave in mid-June, and the surge is to continue for about four months. However, the severity of the wave will depend on the emergence of new variants, vaccination status and administration of booster doses, the study said. The research was led by Sabara Parshad Rajeshbhai, Subhra Sankar Dhar and Shalabh of IIT Kanpur's Mathematic department using a mixture of Gaussian distribution based on the data on Zimbabwe.

This IIT-K study has been published as a pre-print in MedRxiv and is yet to be peer-reviewed. According to the researchers, the data indicates that the fourth wave of COVID in India will arrive after 936 days from the initial data availability date, which is January 30, 2020. "Therefore, the fourth wave starts from June 22, 2022, reaching its peak on August 23, 2022, and ends on October 24, 2022," the study said.