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The preoperative risk tool SURPAS accurately predicts outcomes in emergency surgery

American Journal of Surgery Jan 14, 2021

Rozeboom PD, Bronsert MR, Henderson WG, et al. - Given the accurate predictive ability of the Surgical Risk Preoperative Assessment System (SURPAS) that uses eight variables for postoperative complications, researchers sought to evaluate SURPAS in emergency surgery and compared it to the Emergency Surgery Score (ESS). For emergency operations in the 2009–2018 ACS-NSQIP database, they determined SURPAS and ESS estimates of 30-day mortality and overall morbidity. SURPAS was identified underestimating (8.1%; 35.9%) while ESS was noted overestimating (10.1%; 43.8%) the observed mortality and morbidity (8.9%; 38.8%). Overall findings support the value of SURPAS for accurately estimating the mortality and morbidity in emergency surgery. Comparable predictions were generated by SURPAS and the Emergency Surgery Score. With only eight input variables (vs 22 in ESS), SURPAS is identified as applicable in almost all cases.

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