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The Malawi trauma Score: A model for predicting trauma-associated mortality in a resource-poor setting

Injury Jul 15, 2019

Gallaher J, et al. - Given the frequent inapplicability of current tools for predicting trauma-associated mortality in low-resource environments, researchers sought to develop and validate a model for predicting mortality that requires only a history and physical exam. Among 62,354 patients recorded in the Kamuzu Central Hospital trauma surveillance registry in Lilongwe, Malawi from 2011 through 2014, they used 80% for derivation and 20% for validation of the Malawi trauma Score (MTS). Using regression modeling, they derived factors associated with mortality for construction of the MTS. Based on initial mental status (alert, responds to voice, responds only to pain or worse), anatomical location of the most severe injury, the presence or absence of a radial pulse on examination, age, and sex the MTS is tabulated. They noted a higher probability of mortality in correlation to a mental status exam of only responding to pain or worse, head injury, the absence of a radial pulse, extremes of age, and male sex. The score range is 2–32 and a 50% probability of death is suggested in correlation to an MTS of 25. Observations support the reliability of the MTS as a tool for trauma triage in sub-Saharan Africa and for risk stratifying patient populations. In virtually any environment, this score can be used for reliably predicting injury- associated mortality strengthening its value relative to other models previously developed.
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