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The impact of mask-wearing and shelter-in-place on COVID-19 outbreaks in the United States

International Journal of Infectious Diseases Oct 13, 2020

Zhang K, Vilches TN, Tariq M, et al. - To help inform COVID-19 mitigation strategies, this study was undertaken to investigate the effect of several public health measures, including non-medical mask-wearing, shelter-in-place, and detection of silent infections. A previously established agent-based disease transmission model was expanded and parameterized with estimates of COVID-19 features and US population demographics. In the absence of a shelter-in-place strategy, non-medical mask-wearing by 75% of the population reduced infections, hospitalizations, and deaths by 37.7%, 42.4%, and 47.2% respectively. For those aged 50 to 64, sheltering was the most efficient strategy, lowering attack rate, hospitalizations, and deaths by over 82% when combined with mask-wearing. The results of this study indicate that mask-wearing, even with non-medical masks with only 20% efficacy in preventing disease transmission, has a substantial effect on outbreak control. The data suggested that shelter-in-place strategies remain an important public health intervention, amid ongoing outbreaks.

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