SCORE2 risk prediction algorithms: New models to estimate 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease in Europe
European Heart Journal Jun 23, 2021
Hageman S, Pennells L, Ojeda F, et al. - Researchers sought to construct, validate as well as illustrate an updated prediction model (SCORE2) for estimation of the risk of 10-year fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (CVD) among persons without previous CVD or diabetes aged 40–69 years in Europe. They used individual-participant data from 45 cohorts (677,684 individuals, 30,121 CVD events) in order to derive risk prediction models. They employed gender-specific and competing risk-adjusted models, including age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, and total- and HDL-cholesterol. Estimation of region-specific incidence was done by utilizing CVD mortality and incidence data on 10,776,466 people. The observed C-indices, post-application of the derived risk prediction models to external validation cohorts, ranged from 0.67 (0.65–0.68) to 0.81 (0.76–0.86). Several-fold variation in predicted CVD risk was evident across European regions. Overall, it was inferred that detection of persons at higher risk of developing CVD, across Europe, is enhanced by using SCORE2 which represents a new algorithm derived, calibrated, and validated to predict 10-year risk of first-onset CVD in European populations.
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