Projecting 10-year, 20-year, and lifetime risks of cardiovascular disease in persons living with human immunodeficiency virus in the United States
Clinical Infectious Diseases Oct 17, 2017
Losina E, et al. - This study sought to present the cumulative cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in persons living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV; PLWH) in care compared to the US general population and persons HIV-uninfected, but at high risk for HIV. Based on the results, the researchers recommend including CVD risks in treatment evaluation among PLWH. For these patients, CVD prevention strategies could offer important health benefits and thus should be evaluated.
Methods
- To project cumulative CVD incidence, a mathematical model was used.
- A male and female cohort was simulated for each of 3 populations: US general population; HIV-uninfected, at high risk for HIV; and PLWH.
- The higher smoking prevalence and increased CVD risk due to smoking were incorporated into the HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected, at high risk for HIV populations.
- Incorporation of HIV-attributable CVD risk, independent of smoking was also performed.
Results
- In this study, life expectancy ranged from 70.2 to 77.5 years for men and from 67.0 to 81.1 years for women (PLWH, US general population).
- The estimated lifetime CVD risk for HIV-infected males and females without antiretroviral therapy was 12.9% and 9.0%.
- Cumulative CVD incidence for males, by age 60, was estimated at 20.5% in PLWH in care, 14.6% in HIV-uninfected high-risk persons, and 12.8% in the US general population.
- Cumulative CVD incidence for females was projected to be 13.8% in PLWH in care, 9.7% for high-risk HIV-uninfected persons, and 9.4% in the US general population.
- For HIV-infected males, lifetime CVD risk was 64.8% in comparison to 54.8% for males in the US general population, but it was similar among females.
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