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Predictors of low risk for dropout from the liver transplant waiting list for hepatocellular carcinoma in long wait time regions: Implications for organ allocation

American Journal of Transplantation Apr 17, 2019

Mehta N, et al. - Given that currently the same listing priority for liver transplant (LT) is provided to all patients with hepatocellular carcinoma meeting United Network for Organ Sharing T2 criteria, researchers sought to verify if a subgroup with a very low risk of waitlist dropout exists who may not derive immediate LT benefit at a national level. Within the United Network for Organ Sharing database, they analyzed 2052 patients with T2 hepatocellular carcinoma receiving priority listing from 2011 to 2014 in long wait time regions 1, 5, and 9. Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-Na < 15, Child's class A, single 2- to 3-cm lesion, and α-fetoprotein ≤20 ng/mL were identified to be factors associated with a lower risk of waitlist dropout in multivariate analysis. A 1-year probability of dropout for the subgroup of 245 (11.9%) patients meeting these 4 criteria at LT listing was 5.5% vs 20% for all others. They noted more likelihood to have complete tumor necrosis (35.5% vs 24.9%) and less likelihood to exceed Milan criteria (9.9% vs 17.7%) in the low dropout risk group on explant. These findings thereby suggest the existence of a subgroup with a low risk of waitlist dropout who should not receive the same LT listing priority.
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