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Predictive score of adverse events after carotid endarterectomy: The NSQIP Registry carotid endarterectomy scale

Journal of the American Heart Association Nov 13, 2019

Dasenbrock HH, Smith TR, Gormley WB, et al. - With an intent to augment risk stratification and patient counseling for patients undergoing carotid endarterectomy (CEA), researchers developed a comprehensive, integer-weighted scale to predict adverse events post-CEA. The derivation populace included targeted carotid files identified from the prospective NSQIP (National Surgical Quality Improvement Program) registry (2011–2013). The factors predictive of a 30-day adverse event (stroke, myocardial infarction, or death) were assessed via multivariable logistic regression, and their effect estimates were used to develop a weighted predictive scale. For validation purposes, the 2014 to 2015 NSQIP registry release was used. A total of 14 variables were incorporated in the NSQIP registry CEA scale. The observed rates for 30-day stroke or death were > 3% and 6% in patients with score > 8 and 17 in the validation population, the advised thresholds for asymptomatic and symptomatic patients, respectively. Overall, the prediction of adverse outcomes following CEA as well as risk stratification in patients with both symptomatic and asymptomatic carotid stenosis, using different thresholds for each population, was enabled by the use of the NSQIP registry CEA scale.
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