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Predictive nomogram for postoperative pancreatic fistula following pancreaticoduodenectomy: A retrospective study

BMC Cancer May 28, 2021

Shen J, Guo F, Sun Y, et al. - Researchers retrospectively analyzed consecutive patients who had received pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD) between January 2016 and May 2020 at a single institution, to establish an effective predictive nomogram for postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) post-PD. This study involved a training cohort (n = 302) and a validation cohort (n = 157). The POPF rate was estimated to be 16.56%. Albumin difference, drain amylase value on postoperative day 1, pancreas texture, and BMI were the risk factors of POPF which were all selected into a nomogram. In the validation cohort, good discrimination (AUC = 0.87) as well as calibration abilities, with the nomogram use, were evident. The nomogram had better predictive value compared with that of the alternative fistula risk score model. This work affords a predictive nomogram that could be applied to assess individual risk of POPF in patients post-PD. Albumin difference was revealed as a new, accessible predictor of POPF following PD.

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