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Predicting incident radiographic knee osteoarthritis in middle-aged women within 4 years: The importance of knee-level prognostic factors

Arthritis Care & Research May 31, 2019

Garriga C, et al. - From the Chingford 1000 Women study, researchers analyzed 649 women in order to create and internally validate risk models and a clinical risk score tool to predict incident radiographic knee osteoarthritis (RKOA) in middle-aged women. Age, quadriceps circumference, and a cartilage degradation marker were included as predictors in the clinical model. Older age, greater quadriceps circumference, knee pain, knee baseline Kellgren/Lawrence grade 1 (vs 0), greater hip α-angle, greater spinal bone mineral density, and contralateral RKOA at baseline were included as predictors in the radiographic model. The observed and predicted incident RKOA showed good agreement in calibration tests. From the clinical model, they developed a clinical risk score tool. Osteoarthritis origins beyond the knee were suggested by first-time predictor hip α-angle and contralateral RKOA. Patients at risk of RKOA could be identified in routine practice using the clinical tool, however, externally validation is required.
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