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Predicting donor, recipient and graft survival in living donor kidney transplantation to inform pretransplant counselling: The donor and recipient linked iPREDICTLIVING tool – A retrospective study

Transplant International Mar 03, 2020

Haller MC, Wallisch C, Mjøen G, et al. - Despite the previous publication of separate prediction models for donors and recipients, researchers recognized a requirement to predict outcomes of donor/recipient simultaneously, as they are clearly not independent of each other. Data of transplantations performed at the Oslo University Hospital from 1,854 live donors and from 837 recipients of a live donor kidney transplant were assessed for the related characteristics which were then employed to derive Cox models for prognosticating donor mortality up to 20 years, and recipient death, and graft loss up to 10 years. They selected age, year of donation, smoking status, cholesterol, and creatinine to predict donor mortality (C-statistic of 0.81). In recipient models, linear predictors for donor mortality served as a summary of donor prognosis. The selected age, gender, year of transplantation, dialysis vintage, primary renal disease, cerebrovascular disease, peripheral vascular disease and HLA mismatch to predict recipient mortality (C-statistic of 0.77). To predict graft, they selected loss age, dialysis vintage, linear predictor of donor mortality, HLA mismatch, peripheral vascular disease and heart disease (C-statistic of 0.66). These prediction models assist in decision-making at the time of transplant counseling and are implemented as online calculators.
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