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Predicting COPD 1-year mortality using prognostic predictors routinely measured in primary care

BMC Medicine Apr 10, 2019

Bloom CI, et al. - Using the United Kingdom’s Clinical Practice Research Datalink, researchers developed a prognostic tool based on routinely collected primary care variables that could provide a 12-month mortality prognosis for patients with general chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). The model, known by the acronym “BARC,” was named based on the following putative prognostic factors: body mass index and blood results (B), age (A), respiratory variables (R), and comorbidities (C). Two primary care COPD cohorts were identified. From the first cohort, 54,990 patients and 4,931 from the second cohort were eligible. In predicting 1-year mortality, the BARC index performed better than existing tools. Critically, the risk score needs only routinely gathered non-specialist information, thus helping to identify patients seen in primary care who may benefit from palliative care.

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