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Prearrest prediction of favourable neurological survival following in-hospital cardiac arrest: The Prediction of outcome for In-Hospital Cardiac Arrest (PIHCA) score

Resuscitation Sep 28, 2019

Piscator E, Göransson K, Forsberg S, et al. - Researchers sought to develop a prediction model for in-hospital cardiac arrest (IHCA) for the Swedish setting. Based on previous external validation of The Good Outcome Following Attempted Resuscitation score, they developed the model with 717 adult IHCAs. A full model of 9 predictors was created via including redefinition and reduction of predictors and addition of chronic comorbidity. This model was designated as the Prediction of outcome for In-Hospital Cardiac Arrest (PIHCA) score. With the AUROC of 0.808 (95% CI 0.807–0.810), the model displayed satisfactory calibration. The model showed sensitivity of 99.4% and specificity of 8.4% with a cutoff of 3% likelihood of favorable neurological survival. Despite a limited specificity, it had high (97.4%) predictive value for classification into ≤ 3% likelihood of favorable neurological survival and low predictive value for (0.6%) false classification into ≤ 3% likelihood of favorable neurological survival. Findings thereby support the potential utility of the PIHCA score as an objective tool in the prearrest prediction of outcome after IHCA, as part of the decision process for a do-not-attempt-resuscitation order.
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