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One-year mortality in geriatric trauma patients: Improving upon the geriatric trauma outcomes score utilizing the social security death index

The Journal of Trauma and Acute Care Surgery Nov 08, 2019

Ross SW, Adeyemi FM, Zhou M, et al. - Considering the prospective multicenter trial validating the utility of Geriatric Trauma Outcomes Score (GTOS) in predicting in-patient mortality in geriatric trauma patients and their expansion in predicting adverse discharge (GTOS II), researchers examined if these formulations underestimate the downstream sequelae of injury and investigated longer-term mortality in geriatric trauma patients. Querying the Parkland Memorial Hospital Trauma registry, they identified 3,262 eligible patients for inclusion. Inpatient mortality of 10.0% (324) was reported. With each year, inpatient mortality increased; it was 15.8% in 1 year, 17.8% in 2 years, and 22.6% in 5 years. This indicates an association of traumatic injury in geriatric patients with high mortality rates at 1 year to 5 years. Using multivariate logistic regression, the optimal equation was created to predict 1-year mortality: (GTOSIII = age + [0.806 × ISS] + 5.55 [if transfusion in first 24 hours] + 21.69 [if low GCS] + 34.36 [if adverse discharge]); area under the curve of 0.878. Outcomes support robust test characteristics of GTOS III for predicting death at 1 year; they suggested it as potentially useful in guiding patient-centered goals discussions with objective data.
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