Multicentre derivation and validation of a colitis-associated colorectal cancer risk prediction web tool
Gut May 28, 2021
Curtius K, Kabir M, Al Bakir I, et al. - This study was intended to develop and validate a predictor of advanced neoplasia (AN) risk in patients with ulcerative colitis (UC) with low-grade dysplasia (LGD) and create a visual web tool to effectively communicate the risk. Researchers designed a retrospective multicentre validated cohort study including adult patients with UC with an index diagnosis of LGD, identified from four UK centres between 2001 and 2019, were followed until progression to AN. A multivariate risk prediction model was derived from clinicopathological features using Cox regression in the discovery cohort (n=246). Moreover, validation used data from three external centres (n=198). This study’s findings demonstrate that patients with large, unresected, multifocal LGD and recent moderate/severe inflammation are at the highest risk of developing AN.
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