Monitoring transmissibility and mortality of COVID-19 in Europe
International Journal of Infectious Diseases Apr 02, 2020
Yuan J, et al. - Researchers here sought to inscribe real-time effective reproduction numbers (R(t)) case fatality rate (CFR). For this study, the WHO website mainly provided the data, up to 9 March 2020. Exponential growth rate (EG) and time dependent (TD) method were used to estimate R(t). They used “R0” package in R to determine R(t) by fitting the existing epidemic curve. Estimation of both naïve CFR (nCFR) and adjust CFR (aCFR) was done. R(t) assessed via EG method was 3.27 for Italy, 6.32 for France, 6.07 for Germany, 5.08 for Spain. The R value for March 9 as assessed with TD method was 3.10 for Italy, 6.56 for France, 4.43 for Germany, and 3.95 for Spain. Important findings on an early outbreak of COVID-19 in Europe were thus gained. As new cases of COVID-19 have risen rapidly in recent time, they suggest real-time monitoring of the transmissibility and mortality in Spain and France as a priority
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