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Models to predict outcomes after primary debulking surgery: Independent validation of models to predict suboptimal cytoreduction and gross residual disease

Gynecologic Oncology Apr 19, 2019

Kumar A, et al. - In order to independently validate two published computed tomography (CT) models for predicting surgical complexity (SC) and residual disease (RD) at primary debulking surgery (PDS) for advanced ovarian cancer (OC), researchers applied two prediction models comprised of imaging and clinical variables to predict RD > 1 and any gross RD, respectively, to stage IIIC/IV OC patients who underwent PDS from 2003 to 2011. For validation, they used 276 patients with median age 64 years and majority having serous histology. For validation cohort, lower c-index (0.653) was reported as compared with that reported in the development cohort (0.758), for model 1. This model over-predicted the proportion with RD >1 cm. Excellent discrimination, with a c-index of 0.762, was reported for second model meant to predict gross RD. In an independent center, a CT model to predict presence of gross RD was successfully validated; the separate model to predict RD >1 cm did not validate.
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