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Impact of HPV vaccination and cervical screening on cervical cancer elimination: A comparative modelling analysis in 78 low-income and lower-middle-income countries

The Lancet Feb 07, 2020

Brisson M, Kim JJ, Canfell K, et al. - In this study, human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination and cervical screening scenarios were modeled in low-income and lower-middle-income countries (LMICs) to explore the utility and timing of elimination at different thresholds, and to determine the number of cervical cancer cases averted on the path to elimination. Researchers prognosticated girls-only HPV vaccination to reduce the median age-standardized cervical cancer incidence in LMICs from 19·8 (range 19·4–19·8) to 2·1 (2·0–2·6) cases per 100 000 women-years over the next century (89·4% [86·2–90·1] reduction), and to avert 61·0 million (60·5–63·0) cases during this period. Predictions were consistent across the three models and advise that high HPV vaccination coverage of girls can lead to cervical cancer elimination in most LMICs by the end of the century. It was demonstrated that screening with high uptake will facilitate reductions and will be required to reduce cervical cancer in countries with the highest-burden.
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