Researchers used the results of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2016, which estimated major disease burden from 1990 through 2016, to determine the lifetime risk of stroke at the regional, country, and global level. Outcomes suggest that both men and women have approximately 25% global lifetime risk of stroke from the age of 25 years onward in 2016. The lifetime risk of stroke varied geographically, with the highest risks in East Asia, Central Europe, and Eastern Europe.

Methods

• Researchers calculated the cumulative lifetime risks of first stroke, ischemic stroke, or hemorrhagic stroke among adults 25 years of age or older using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2016 estimates of stroke incidence and the competing risks of death from any cause other than stroke.
• Comparison of the estimates of the lifetime risks in the years 1990 and 2016 was done.
• Categorization of countries into quintiles of the sociodemographic index (SDI) used in the GBD Study was done, and the risks were compared across quintiles.
• Using point estimates and uncertainty intervals representing the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles around the estimate, they performed comparisons.

Results

• From the age of 25 years onward, the estimated global lifetime risk of stroke was 24.9% (95% uncertainty interval, 23.5 to 26.2); men displayed the risk of 24.7% (95% uncertainty interval, 23.3 to 26.0), and women displayed the risk of 25.1% (95% uncertainty interval, 23.7 to 26.5).
• Researchers noted ischemic stroke risk of 18.3%, and the hemorrhagic stroke risk of 8.2%.
• The estimated lifetime risks of stroke in high-SDI, high-middle–SDI, and low-SDI countries were 23.5%, 31.1% (highest risk), and 13.2% (lowest risk), respectively; the 95% uncertainty intervals did not overlap between these categories.
• According to GBD region, the highest estimated lifetime risks of stroke were noted in East Asia (38.8%), Central Europe (31.7%), and Eastern Europe (31.6%), and the lowest risk was in eastern sub-Saharan Africa (11.8%).
• They noted an increase in the mean global lifetime risk of stroke from 22.8% in 1990 to 24.9% in 2016, a relative increase of 8.9% (95% uncertainty interval, 6.2 to 11.5); this calculation was done considering the competing risk of death from any cause other than stroke.