Quddusi A, Eversdijk HAJ, Klukowska AM, et al. - Using data from a prospective registry, researchers sought external validation for a prediction model named as SCOAP-CERTAIN (spine surgical care and outcomes assessment programme/comparative effectiveness translational network) for predicting 12-month minimum clinically significant variation in Oswestry Disability Index (ODI) and in numeric rating scales for back (NRS-BP) and leg pain following elective lumbar fusion. Participants were 100 patients in total, with average age of 50.4 ± 11.4 years. The AUC for 12-month ODI was estimated to be 0.71, while the calibration intercept and slope were 1.08 and 0.95, respectively. The AUC for NRS-BP was estimated to be 0.72, with a calibration intercept and slope of 1.02 and 0.74, respectively. Findings revealed the ability of the SCOAP-CERTAIN tool in precisely predicting favorable outcomes. However, the predicted probabilities (which are the most important in clinical practice) informed by the tool did not correspond well to the true likelihood of a favourable outcome. The external validation of any prediction tool prior to its employment in routine clinical practice was recommended.